How a Disappearing Island Nation Plans to Exist After It’s Swallowed by the Ocean
Tuvalu, a country of nine coral atolls in the Pacific Ocean, faces the prospect of physical disappearance this century. With an average altitude of just two meters, the nation has already seen soil turn salty, crops die off, and coastlines retreat under pressure from the sea.
Around 11,000 people live within its 26 square kilometres of land, and for them, rising temperatures, worsening storms, and vanishing ground are everyday realities. And to protect its sovereignty and identity as the ocean advances, Tuvalu’s government is pursuing several strategies.
Eroding Land and Daily Life
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Scientists project that by the end of this century, most of Tuvalu’s land will sit beneath high tide. The signs are already visible. Two islands are on the brink of vanishing, and traditional crops, such as pulaka, no longer grow. This forces households to rely on expensive imported foods.
Meanwhile, water supplies are just as fragile, since nearly all drinking water comes from rain stored in tanks that run low during frequent droughts. To make things worse, the surrounding ocean, once a dependable food source, now brings risk as bleached coral weakens fisheries. Hospitals also see rising cases of dengue and fungal infections linked to the changing climate.
Mobility Through a Treaty
To respond to these mounting pressures, Tuvalu reached an agreement with Australia in 2023 known as the Falepili Union. The treaty created a pathway for 280 citizens each year to move permanently, with residency rights and eventual citizenship. Officials framed this plan as “dignified mobility,” designed to manage relocation in an orderly way rather than through emergency displacement.
At the same time, more than 2,000 Tuvaluans have already settled in New Zealand, and that number continues to rise. Younger people often seek opportunities abroad, while many elders remain committed to life on the islands despite the risks.
Building a Digital Nation
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Another method the government is pursuing involves creating a Digital Nation. This project was announced at the COP27 climate summit in 2022 and is designed to preserve the island in virtual form.
High-resolution Lidar scans, drones, and 360-degree cameras have already mapped all 124 islands and islets. Citizens contribute stories, songs, and heirlooms to a growing cultural archive that captures daily life.
The plan also introduces digital passports and online governance so elections and civil services can continue without physical territory. By building this digital replica, Tuvaluans can remain connected to their roots and origins even if the islands themselves are lost.
Legal Questions and Global Significance
While these methods offer hope, they also raise serious questions under international law. Recognition of a state traditionally requires defined territory and a permanent population, and the region’s plan challenges that foundation. Legal scholars note that its future status depends on the willingness of other governments to accept a new model of sovereignty.
Up until now, no nation has ever continued to exist without land, but Tuvalu could set that precedent. The situation exposes the absence of legal frameworks for climate-driven displacement and tests how sovereignty might evolve under environmental collapse.